Is AI capex being funded with debt?
As of filings through October 30, 2026; latest quarter complete for all five: Sep 2026
In the quarter ended Sep 2026, 2 of the 4 that could be judged both outspent operations and added long-term debt: Alphabet and Amazon. Over the 37 quarters the rule can be judged here, the count has averaged 0.3.
- Count, latest quarter
- 2 of 4
- Companies meeting the rule in the latest quarter complete for all five
- Average count
- 0.3
- Over the 37 calendar quarters the rule can be judged
- Highest count
- 2
- Most companies meeting the rule in any one quarter since Sep 2017
The rule, fixed before any result was read
A company counts in a quarter when it spent more on property and equipment than it generated from operations and its long-term debt on the balance sheet rose over the quarter. A company whose filing carries no long-term debt line for either quarter is not judged.
Quarter by quarter
Count of fiveCount of companies meeting the rule in each calendar quarter. A lighter bar means fewer than 5 could be judged that quarter.
The five in the latest quarter
Millions of dollars, Sep 2026| Company | Fiscal quarter | Capital spending | Operating cash flow | Share of cash flow | Against a year earlier | Long-term debt change | Meets the rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | Sep 2026 | 39,367 | 58,000 | 68% | +103.0% | +23 | No |
| Alphabet | Sep 2026 | 51,355 | 42,290 | 121% | +114.4% | +26,937 | Yes |
| Amazon | Sep 2026 | 77,259 | 42,422 | 182% | +120.1% | +44,231 | Yes |
| Meta | Sep 2026 | 33,942 | 32,785 | 104% | +80.3% | (2,742) | No |
| Oracle | Aug 2026 | 28,499 | 23,103 | 123% | +235.2% | — | Not judged |
Why this rule
A funding gap can be met from cash already on hand, from borrowing, from issuing shares or from leases. The rule isolates the case where the gap and new debt arrive together, which is the one that changes a credit analyst’s view.
The balance-sheet change is a proxy. Maturities, reclassification between current and long-term, acquisitions and currency all move the line, and a company can borrow in one quarter to spend in the next. The financing section of the cash flow statement is the exact record and the letter reads it.
Questions this page answers
- What exactly is the rule?
- A company counts in a quarter when it spent more on property and equipment than it generated from operations and its long-term debt on the balance sheet rose over the quarter. A company whose filing carries no long-term debt line for either quarter is not judged.
- Which companies met it in the latest quarter?
- Alphabet and Amazon in the quarter ended Sep 2026.
- Why is the verdict a count and not a score?
- A count keeps every input checkable: each company either met the printed rule or did not, and the company page shows the figures that decided it. A blended score would hide which input moved.
- Which quarter does the verdict describe?
- The latest calendar quarter for which all five hyperscalers have structured filings, Sep 2026 as of October 30, 2026. A company that has reported a later quarter shows it on its own page; the count moves when all five have reached the next quarter.